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美暂停援助巴基斯坦有风险一托福阅读机经背景



The Obama administration has said it will suspend hundreds of millions of dollars in military aid and reimbursements to Pakistan. The move is widely seen as reflecting a high level of frustration in Washington with the Pakistani government. It is also a highly risky step to take against a government that is a key ally in a war.

奥巴马政府表示,将暂停向巴基斯坦提供几亿美元的军事援助和偿付开支。这个举措被普遍认为是华盛顿对巴基斯坦政府感到极度受挫的反应。对战争关键盟友的政府采取如此做法也有相当大的风险。

Government-to-government disputes between friendly governments usually take place in private and are smoothed over in public. So the Obama administration’s decision to hold back some $800 million in U.S. military assistance is a highly unusual display of Washington’s diplomatic displeasure with Islamabad.

关系友好的政府之间出现争议通常是在私下进行,这些争议在公开场合会被淡化下来。因此奥巴马政府决定暂停大约8亿美元的军事援助极不寻常地显示出,华盛顿在外交方面对伊斯兰堡的不满。

Former State Department policy planner Daniel Markey, now with the Council on Foreign Relations, says the move reflects a downward trajectory in U.S.-Pakistan relations.

前国务院政策策划人丹尼尔.马尔基现在是美国外交关系委员会的研究员。他表示,这个决定反映了美巴关系在走下坡。

"It’s definitely a sign that the relationship is spiraling downwards, and I think it’s a ratcheting up of the pressure from Washington," said Markey. "But I don’t think it’s a significant enough ratcheting up to actually turn a corner in a constructive way. If anything, it looks more like frustration and venting, which may contribute to a further spiraling downward."

马尔基说:“这肯定是两国关系一路下降的迹象。我认为这是由于华盛顿压力越来越大,但我不认为这种压力会真的大到足以扭转为建设性的途径。这看起来更像是挫折和消气,而这可能导致以后关系急速下降。”

Total U.S. aid to Pakistan last year came to about $4.5 billion, about half of which went to the military. Daniel Markey says the administration probably acted in anticipation of some kind of move by Congress, where sentiment to curtail aid to Pakistan has been growing.

去年美国对巴基斯坦的援助总额大约为45亿美元,其中大约一半拨给军方。马尔基说,奥巴马政府的决定或许是出于国会的期待。国会中要求减少对巴基斯坦援助的声浪不断上升。

"The U.S. has been frustrated and has felt that Pakistan has not turned a positive corner - that, if anything, relations from the Pakistani side have gotten more negative," he said. "And so I gather that in response to that - and perhaps in anticipation that the U.S. Congress would cut assistance if the administration did not - the Obama administration has decided, as they put it, to postpone the delivery of monies, some of which the Pakistanis believe they deserve because they’ve already conducted operations and used that money."

马尔基说:“美国一直感到很受挫,而且觉得巴基斯坦没有转为积极,巴基斯坦对美国的关系变得更加负面。因此我认为,政府对此的回应是决定暂停送 钱给巴基斯坦。这个反应或许是预期如果行政当局不削减对巴基斯坦的援助,国会就会删减援助款项。部分这些援助款巴基斯坦认为他们理所应得,因为他们已经采 取了行动并且使用了援助款项。”

But Professor Larry Goodson of the U.S. Army War College says it is a gamble to hold back aid to Islamabad since most of the supplies for U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan move by land routes through Pakistan.

但是美国陆军战争学院的拉里.古德森教授说,暂停对伊斯兰堡的援助是项赌博,这是由于为在阿富汗的美国和北约部队运送的大部分物资都要经过巴基斯坦的地面路线。

"It is an extremely big risk to take. In my judgment, it’s extremely dangerous to tell the person who has his hands around your throat, ‘don’t squeeze, or I’ll get really angry with you.’ The truth is, they control the supply lines," said Goodson. "And in the past, we have seen clear indicators when they have been unhappy with us, there have been attacks on the supply lines."

古德森说:“这冒着极大的风险。依我看,这是非常危险的,好比是,有人掐住了你的喉咙,你同他说不要掐我,不然我就对你不客气。现实情况是,巴基斯坦控制着补给路线。过去我们清楚看到,当巴基斯坦对美国感到很不痛快时,就发生补给路线遭到攻击的事情。”

The U.S. has complained that Pakistan has not done enough to eradicate militant sanctuaries along the Afghan border and has demanded more cooperation from the Pakistani military and intelligence services. But U.S. officials privately voice concern about sharing intelligence with Pakistan for fear it will be leaked to militants. The Pakistani government, and in particular the powerful military, was embarrassed and upset that they were not informed in advance of the U.S. raid on a compound in the Pakistani city of Abbottabad where Osama bin Laden was found and killed.

美国抱怨说,巴基斯坦在扫荡阿富汗边界一带的激进分子窝藏地方面做的不够,美国要求巴基斯坦军方和情报机构进行更多合作。但是美国官员私下对跟 巴基斯坦分享情报感到忧虑,他们担心,对方会把情报泄露给激进分子。巴基斯坦政府,尤其是势力强大的军方对美国没有事前知会他们突袭本.拉登的行动感到颜 面尽失。美军在巴基斯坦城市阿伯塔巴德找到了本.拉登匿藏处并且将他击毙。

Most recently the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen, publicly implicated the Pakistani government in the kidnapping, torture, and murder of a Pakistani journalist who was critical of the intelligence service. Islamabad angrily dismissed the allegation as “baseless” and “irresponsible.”

最近,美国参谋长联席会议主席迈克·马伦海军上将公开暗示,巴基斯坦政府绑架,虐待和杀害该国的一名记者。这名记者批评巴基斯坦的情报机构。伊斯兰堡愤怒地反驳说,这种指称没有根据,不负责任。

Pakistan was a key U.S. ally in organizing and supplying the anti-Soviet resistance in Afghanistan in the 1980s, but was then subjected to some U.S. military sanctions over its nuclear program after Soviet forces withdrew. Larry Goodson says that left a lot of residual bad feeling towards the U.S. in Pakistan.

1980年代,巴基斯坦在规划和支援阿富汗境内的反苏联抵抗方面是美国的关键盟友,但是在苏联部队撤退阿富汗后,巴基斯坦的核项目成为美国部分军事制裁的对象。拉里古德森说,这使巴基斯坦对美国留下了很多不满。

"Pakistan has this world view whereby the United States is an unreliable partner or ally and that we periodically push them to do things that they don’t want to do or whatever, and then we leave them in the lurch," he said. "That’s the narrative, right, the Pakistani narrative of the United States, and not without its justification and all that. But it nonetheless is a sort of narrative."

古德森说:“巴基斯坦有这样的世界观,认为美国是不可靠的伙伴或盟友,美国偶尔逼得巴基斯坦去做巴基斯坦不想做的事,然后美国却对他们在危难中弃而不顾。这是巴基斯坦对美国的说法,这并非不能自圆其说。然而这是一种说法。”

Goodson says the sentiment generated in Pakistan by the current military aid suspension may come back to haunt the U.S. as moves begin for a political settlement in neighboring Afghanistan, where Pakistan is expected to want to play some kind of role.

古德森说,巴基斯坦因美国暂停军事援助而产生的情绪可能会给美国带来挥之不去的困扰,因为邻国阿富汗将开始政治和解,而预期巴基斯坦要在当中发挥某种作用。

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